Since writing this Abe called a snap election, which the opposition lost; proposed tax cuts that will undermine part of the benefits of the 1st tax increase but which will do nothing to stimulate the economy (since corporates are awash with cash while interest rates are low in real terms, taxes aren't what's holding them back); postponed the 2nd tax increase; and ... the economy appears to again be re-entering the world of (mild) deflation. At some point I'll revisit these issues.
mike smitka